Examining all of the issues surrounding the trade decision
There’s been much written about the rumors of the Steelers acquiring WR Brandon Aiyuk via trade. The discussion of such a potential move, whether it is Aiyuk or some other option, revolves around a few basic arguments. I will try to address those arguments from a pro-trade perspective.
Issue: Arthur Smith’s offense doesn’t throw enough passes to need two high-caliber WRs.
Response: Smith’s offenses over his five seasons as offensive coordinator and head coach have been centered on the run game without a doubt. He has never had an offense that attempted more passes than the league average. This past season, Atlanta averaged 31.2 attempts per game while 35.6 would have ranked No.10 league-wide. That’s only 4.4 less attempts per game from being one of the more “pass-happy” teams in the NFL. Those averages vary by game situation. In the three games that the Falcons won by two scores (9 or more points), they attempted 24.0 compared to 32.7 in the 14 other games. Now, if you can convince me that the Steelers will have a ridiculous amount of two-score victories, I’ll concede that a solid WR duo isn’t that necessary.
In the non-two-score games, Smith’s offenses vary their amount of passing based on the caliber of QB. When there was no reason to trust the guys throwing, they were asked to throw less.
33.7 (2021) attempts per game for Matt Ryan who has a league MVP to his credit.
32.7 (2023) for the combo of second-year Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke who was coming off of 25 starts over the previous two seasons.
32.6 (2020) for Ryan Tannehill, a starter for a decade.
32.0 (2019) when Tannehill took over mid-season after Marcus Mariota was benched.
24.7 (2022) for Mariota who hadn’t thrown a pass in two years and rookie Ridder off of the bench.
Issue: With Smith’s use of multi-TE sets, Pat Freiermuth can act as a slot WR.
Response: Freiermuth is known for his receiving much more than the ability to block as an inline TE. Splitting him away from the OL is an effective way of utilizing his skills. Having a power-running game with George Pickens out wide and Freiermuth in the slot is something I expect to see a lot this season. It’s all fine and dandy until you are trailing late in a game and have to throw. Then the defense only has to worry about Pickens. Freiermuth, and either the potential of a rookie or one of the other current Steeler WRs who might not even be good enough to make the final 53-man roster. Good luck getting chunk plays. I would kindly describe that scenario as “less than ideal”.
Issue: The Steelers are so good at drafting WRs that they don’t need to trade for one.
Response: The most recent Steeler WR draft picks were Pickens, Calvin Austin, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington. Pickens and Johnson are very good, but the other 3 combined for 25 catches in 2023 and only Claypool’s 46 catches in 2022. A 40 percent draft hit rate at the position is not what the Steelers should rely on. You could travel back in time about a decade and see the WR draft glory days, but that doesn’t help in 2024.
The NFL as a whole doesn’t do any better. In 2019 N’Keal Harry was drafted ahead of Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown then Andy Isabella and JJ Arcega-Whiteside ahead of DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, and Terry McLaurin. In 2020 it was Henry Ruggs and Jalen Reagor ahead of Justin Jefferson, Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins. Picking the right receiver just isn’t that easy.
Issue: Pickens is so talented and the run game is so strong that any decent WR will flourish.
Response: To date, Pickens has shown he can do remarkable things sometimes when he is NOT the main focus of the defense. Though they are very different players, it feels like a JuJu Smith-Schuster sequel at this point. Pickens hasn’t had to carry the burden of being the top target in the passing game. Asking him to do the heavy lifting could very well backfire if he is constantly covered by double-teams as safeties have nobody else to fear.
Issue: The Steelers don’t pay big money to WRs. They believe in drafting them to be able to use their money elsewhere.
Response: The Steelers paid Antonio Brown big money after first offering that money to Mike Wallace. Then the Steelers paid Brown bigger money on his next contract. Diontae Johnson was given a second contract at a high price. At some point, the Steelers will have to either pay market pricing for offensive playmakers again or master the art of trying to win games without scoring many points. Future cap space is wide open to taking on a huge contract.
Issue: The Steelers believe in their culture and prefer to pay top dollar only for their own drafted players, not those from some other franchise.
Response: In the past three off-seasons, the Steelers have signed some of the top available outside free agents at their positions in James Daniels, Isaac Seumalo, and Patrick Queen. These are not your father’s Steelers anymore.
Issue: The draft pick expense of any potential trade is just too high to even consider.
Response: The rumored asking price for Aiyuk may sound high, but look at what other WR trades have been done for and consider that he is not the only option. Stefon Diggs has been a 1,000-yard WR for six years straight with four Pro Bowls and one All-Pro season. He is 30 but has no injury concerns. Diggs was traded for the value of a late 3rd-round pick. Keenan Allen has six 1,000-yard seasons on the back of his trading card as well and is coming off a season where he posted 108 catches, 1243 yards, and 7 TDs. At 31 with a recent history of missing around 3 games per season, Allen was traded for pick No.110 this year. How these relate to a much younger Aiyuk is unclear but other trade candidates are being tossed into the rumor mill. If you believe there could be fire when you see smoke, Courtland Sutton has joined Tee Higgins as a possibility. Higgins going within the division is highly unlikely, but his trade request reflects that league-wide WR supply isn’t limited to Aiyuk. There should also be a few teams willing to part with a veteran on draft day if they land their desired rookie.
Issue: The Steelers aren’t just a WR away.
Response: The Steelers are definitely a WR away— away from being able to evaluate their QBs. With no QB under contract for 2025, this is a season where the Steelers need to evaluate whether or not to extend Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields. Putting a QB out there with an incomplete WR corps, or gambling on a rookie, risks adding questions instead of answers for what to do going forward with the most important position in sports.
Issue: The Steelers have other top needs and can’t afford to lose top draft picks in a trade.
Response: Trading for an established WR definitively fills one hole on the roster. Drafting one might, but might not. There is also the possibility of trading away a high pick but getting back a still-valuable lower pick with a WR. Depending on how high the Steelers want to aim, perhaps it’s trading away the 1st rounder and getting back a 2nd, or trading away the 2nd rounder and getting back a 3rd. In such a case they have filled one hole and haven’t lost any of the quantity of valuable picks they began with. They could still address the same number of needs as they could without making a trade, just at a lower (but still high) draft position. It’s almost like killing two birds with one stone in a year where they have a lot of birds to kill.