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Feat. Arrowhead Pride’s Jared Sapp.
The 10-5 Pittsburgh Steelers take on the 14-1 Kansas City Chiefs at home in a Christmas Day showdown between two AFC playoff teams. Ahead of the game, I spoke with Jared Sapp of Arrowhead Pride to preview the matchup.
You can read my questions and his answers below:
The Chiefs’ receiving corps look a lot deeper than they did at the beginning of the season. Obviously Patrick Mahomes is always a threat, but how dangerous are his pass-catchers entering Week 17?
The depth is an amazing development after the early season loss of Rashee Rice when he was maybe the best wideout in the league for the season’s first month. Hollywood Brown returned last week and hardly looked like he had been on the shelf for four months. Mahomes and Xavier Worthy have yet to really develop the expected deep ball connection, but the rookie has shown off a really advanced route tree over the last month and has six straight games with at least four catches. DeAndre Hopkins does DeAndre Hopkins things, though the Chiefs have seemed to intentionally manage his snaps ahead of the postseason. Once in a while, even JuJu Smith-Schuster makes a big play.
At tight end, Travis Kelce shows little of the yards-after-the-catch threat that made him so dangerous for a decade, but he still is the best at finding where to be in a zone. His backup Noah Gray has been the most explosive tight end on the Chiefs this season.
It’s a short week late in the season and injuries are piling up. Just how banged up are the Chiefs, and how could that affect their performance on Christmas?
Like the Steelers, the Chiefs had a long estimated injury report to start the short week. Mahomes seemed more than fine through the ankle injury on Saturday, though it is still concerning to turn around and play four days later. The biggest concern is obviously Chris Jones being listed as not participating with a report coming out late Sunday that he was 50-50 at best. Most players on the list will likely play, though linebacker Jack Cochrane (a special teams standout) will be placed on IR before the game with a fractured ankle.
Kansas City’s offensive tackle situation has been a bit uneven this year. How do they match up against the Steelers’ pass-rush?
To be fair, when TJ Watt and company are on, no team has a tackle situation they should feel great about. It’s been rough. Word originally was that the Chiefs hoped to have DJ Humphries back from a hamstring injury this week to start at left tackle, but he was estimated as not practicing Sunday. Pass protection has been better since moving left guard Joe Thuney outside the last two weeks. Myles Garrett (of course) had his moments in Week 15. The Chiefs were pretty successful in managing Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson of the Texans Saturday. We will see if it holds up against the Steelers.
The Chiefs have a top-five defense this season and Steve Spagnuolo is a legendary coordinator. How do you think Kansas City will scheme against the Steelers’ offense?
Honestly, the Chiefs’ defense has kind of lived on their Super Bowl reputation from a year ago. The pass rush has been underwhelming, and Russell Wilson might have all day to throw if Jones misses time (and I predict he will). The biggest mystery for me has been how offenses can double or triple team Jones every play and the other front four players aren’t crushing advantageous matchups.
Big plays have been a problem for the Chiefs over the second half of the season. Spagnuolo focused on Nico Collins last week for extra safety help (frequently with ballhawking rookie Jaden Hicks). I predict a similar plan against a returning George Pickens. The downside is that that left Tank Dell able to do whatever he wanted all game until his gruesome knee injury in the third quarter. Whether Van Jefferson or Calvin Austin can replicate what Dell was doing might be a key to the game.
Teams rarely get the ground game going against Kansas City, and I don’t really like Najee Harris’ chances of being the third back this season to get 60 rushing yards against the Chiefs no matter Jones’ status. Jaylen Warren could find some success in the passing game against this linebacking corps.
The biggest X-factor will be recent familiarity between the Chiefs and Russell Wilson. Wilson only totaled 209 passing yards over two matchups in 2023 while being sacked ten times. He also found a few big plays to throw four touchdowns, helping Denver get the upset win in the second matchup.
The Chiefs enter Week 17 as 2.5-point favorites. What’s your score prediction for Wednesday’s game, and why?
Short week games are unpredictable, but they are usually unpredictable in favor of the home team. One thing you can probably plan on is a sloppy game from both teams coming off of physical Week 16 matchups. Assuming Jones’ absence, I think the Steelers have a good chance to give the Chiefs their second consecutive Christmas loss. I am predicting the Steelers come out ahead 20-17 in an ugly one that makes the foolishness of the NFL’s scheduling clear.