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Despite national pessimism, Pittsburgh is a lot closer to contending than many would believe.

Going into the 2023 offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers were left with great excitement and legitimate skepticism. They had just rattled off seven wins out of their last nine games under Kenny Pickett, albeit embattled offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s philosophical approach. They missed the playoffs by only a field goal kicked by the Miami Dolphins over the New York Jets late in the 4th quarter, yet made significant strides towards the finish line.

A few months have passed, and it’s probably safe to say that there is far more optimism surrounding the team than previously. This was a crucial first offseason for rookie general manager Omar Khan. It was a make-or-break time to improve the roster and depth chart by week 1.

Surely enough, the “Khan Artist” broke the bank when it came to the number of transactions well-liked by fans made thus far. GM of the Year awards aren’t handed out in May, but there’s a lot to like about how the team is being assembled for the long run.

On paper, we’re looking at an indefinitely improved roster. It’s hard not to believe they’re better than the nine-win team from last year. The trenches were made a priority by Khan and Assistant general manager Andy Wiedl, and they weren’t messing around in the process.

Broderick Jones, Isaac Seumalo, and Nate Herbig complete a massive overhaul of the offensive line with James Daniels, Mason Cole, and Chukwuma Okorafor already in the fold. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will be running with much more ease.

Defensively, helping out Cameron Heyward in his latter years was not to be overlooked. Keanu Benton, Armon Watts, Breiden Fehoko, and the emergence of DeMarvin Leal all will make contributions to a stronger defensive line.

Skill position players aren’t to be forgotten either. 2nd-year quarterback Kenny Pickett will have more weapons at his disposal in the fall. Allen Robinson and Darnell Washington help form a formidable receiver corps alongside George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, and Calvin Austin III. The more options for your franchise guy, the better he’ll be set up for success.

The Linebacker and secondary situations were a bit bleak after an eventful season defined by inconsistencies and flaws. Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, Tanner Muse, and Markus Golden will undoubtedly provide better depth up front. Mark Robinson is another name to watch who might break out in 2023.

Joey Porter Jr is a household name for his relation to Joey Porter Sr, former Steeler great. But that’s not the only thing he will bring to a secondary in dire need of reinforcements. Patrick Peterson, Keanu Neal, Chandon Sullivan, and Corey Trice all are notable yet impactful additions. MInkah Fitzpatrick, Damonte Kazee, and Levi Wallace currently reside in very valuable roles.

Coaching staff changes are commonplace in the NFL, but for the Steelers, they should not be forgotten at all and perhaps might bode well for them under Mike Tomlin. Offensive Assistant Coach Glenn Thomas, Assistant Quarterbacks Coach David Corley, Inside Linebackers Coach Aaron Curry, Assistant Defensive Backs Coach Gerald Alexander, and Defensive Quality Control Coach Jason Brooks were the newest hires to a staff known to be below the average size. The new coaches should make a difference in aiding Tomlin back to the postseason.

Overall, there’s little reason to think this roster will not improve upon their 2022 win total heading into the 2023 regular season in September. The biggest factors that will define the next season will be 3 names; Kenny Pickett (can he take the next step forward?), Matt Canada (will Canada do better in play calling?), and Mike Tomlin (can Tomlin coach Steelers to a better start?). All that aside, the hype will continue to build as we inch closer to Training Camp and Preseason.

Will he take a big step up in his second year?

The Pittsburgh Steelers were 1 and 4 when Kenny Pickett threw the ball more than 30 times. The game they won was the lowest scoring victory of the season, a 13-10 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. When Pickett threw 30 times or less the Steelers were undefeated with a 6-0 record. (only counting games Pickett started and threw at least two passes)

You can look at that information several ways, from an argument that the Steelers didn’t need Kenny Pickett to win games, that Kenny Pickett couldn’t deliver when the Steelers needed him, even the very basic fact that teams throw more when trailing and throw less when winning is a factor here. So what can we take away from Pickett’s 1-4 record when throwing the ball more?

To get a good idea of whether it is concerning or not, let’s take a look at other young quarterbacks since 2010 and how their teams fared when throwing the ball more than 30 times in a game.

Since 2010, 114 quarterbacks have thrown more than thirty passes in a game in the first two seasons of their NFL career. Thirty-seven of those quarterbacks failed to win even one of those games, 32% of the quarterbacks lost every game they threw 31+ times. Eighteen of those 37, and 25 of the 114 only had one game with more than thirty throws. If we cut the list to just the quarterbacks with 5+ games of more than thirty passes, the list shrinks to just under half the size, with 65 players qualifying. Kenny Pickett is one of the worst in the group with his 1-4 record, but again, the list contains first and second year games, and there’s a reason for that, that we will get to shortly.

Here’s the best records from our list of quarterbacks:

John Skelton: 5-2
Patrick Mahomes: 9-4
Andrew Luck: 16-8
Lamar Jackson: 3-2
Mason Rudolph: 3-2
Andy Dalton: 10-9
Carson Wentz: 11-10

Four good starting quarterbacks who threw a lot early in their careers, Lamar Jackson who was much more of a runner than passer in the Ravens offense, and two guys that started with strong records but couldn’t hold a starting job. Those are the only ones to throw more than thirty times in at least 5 games their first two seasons and have a winning record. Seven out of the 65 who qualified. In fact, of the 65 who qualified, almost one half (32 of them) won 25% or less of these games.

But lets look deeper into it, here’s those same players records from just their rookie season:

John Skelton: 1-1 (the win a blowout with 6 forced turnovers and over 200 yards rushing)
Patrick Mahomes: 1-0
Andrew Luck: 8-4
Lamar Jackson: 0-0
Mason Rudolph: 0-0
Andy Dalton: 6-4
Carson Wentz: 5-8

Andrew Luck was a unicorn, a rare prospect that was incredibly talented and NFL ready from Week 1 of his rookie season. Andy Dalton was NFL ready with a much lower ceiling, his record actually was worse his second season. Most didn’t throw much in their first season. Carson Wentz embodies the more common situation for good young quarterbacks, going from a losing record his first season to a winning record in his second season.

Here’s some of the other more famous quarterbacks in the NFL right now and their rookie and second year record when throwing the ball more than 30 times.

Justin Hebert: 5-8 (R), 10-8 (2)
Trevor Lawrence: 2-10 (R), 7-6 (2)
Josh Allen: 0-5 (R), 4-3 (2)
Joe Burrow: 2-6-1 (R), 4-5 (2)
Derek Carr: 2-11 (R), 6-7 (2)
Ryan Tannehill: 0-7 (R), 7-7 (2)
Baker Mayfield: 3-7 (R), 4-8 (2)
Andy Dalton: 6-4 (R), 5-5 (2)
Dak Prescott: 5-2 (R), 2-5 (2)

Most good quarterbacks make a substantial leap in win/loss record when relied on to throw the ball more in their second season. This data tells us that we can’t judge too much by Kenny Pickett’s rookie season record when throwing the ball more than thirty times, but that if that record doesn’t improve a good bit in his second season, then he likely isn’t going to be the long term answer for the Steelers at quarterback. It would be great for him to take a Joe Burrow or Derek Carr step forward, but we don’t want to see him in the same category as Baker Mayfield, a quarterback just good enough to hold the job but not good enough to lead your team to greatness.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were back at practice, and it’s time to take a look at what went down.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were back on the field for Organized Team Activities (OTAs) Wednesday, and for those who haven’t been paying attention this isn’t breaking news. The Steelers have been participating in OTAs for the last few months, but Phase 3, which just started, gets the most news.

In case you don’t know, Phase 1 of OTAs is essentially just workouts with the strength and conditioning staff, Phase 2 is more position specific training/drills and Phase 3 is the most football-like of all OTAs. It is Phase 3 which is where teams can do 7-on-7, 9-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills. No contact, no pads, but plenty of news to go around. Before going any further, it is important to note these workouts are 100% voluntary.

There was plenty of news on Day 6 which wasn’t just the aforementioned topics, and in this article I will dive into those, as well as share some video fans might enjoy checking out!

Let’s get to the news…

While most fans of the Steelers are looking forward to hearing about Joey Porter Jr. turning heads, it has actually been the other cornerback the team drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft which has been making an impact at OTAs.

That’s right, Cory Trice Jr. out of Purdue as a 7th Round pick has been the rookie making the most “splash”. On Thursday, to wrap up Week 2 of OTAs, Trice was all over the field making plays in the form of pass break ups and even an interception.

While this might not be the rookie cornerback most people were expecting to make plays, at least there are some plays being made regardless.

Now it’s time to check out what else took place during OTAs…

Interesting Take from Dan Moore Jr.

Some say it is like driving on the other side of the road, maybe this analogy is better?

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Some experts think the Steelers have another three years before they’re ready to compete. But Pittsburgh has been rebuilding since 2019. That would be a seven-year rebuild. The NFL doesn’t have seven-year rebuilds.

The Steelers spent most of the 2010s trying to recapture the magic of their second Super Bowl era that started in 2004, Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season, and pretty much ended the night Tim Tebow beat them in a wildcard playoff game following the 2011 campaign.

Despite some real salary-cap hell, the departure of many Super Bowl heroes, and a major roster turnover, Pittsburgh surprisingly managed to build itself back into a decent contender again by the end of the 2014 season.

It helped to have Roethlisberger and his prime years still on the horizon. It also didn’t hurt that Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell became arguably the best receiver/running back duo (if there is such a thing) in the NFL. Both were, at times, the best players at their respective positions (Brown would actually go on a historic run of greatness). Throw in an offensive line that went from a real weakness to one of the stronger units in the NFL, and the offense would be the engine that powered Pittsburgh in the mid-to-late 2010s.

Unfortunately, despite some pretty exciting years, the Steelers, under the leadership of the Killer B’s-led offense, never got back to a Super Bowl.

In my opinion, the Killer B era officially jumped the shark late in the 2018 campaign when Pittsburgh blew a 2.5-game lead in the AFC North and missed the playoffs with a 9-6-1 record.

Things would never be the same after that.

Bell, who held out all of 2018, and Brown, who forced himself to be traded, were both gone by 2019. Roethlisberger suffered a serious elbow injury in Week 2 of that year and would miss the remainder of the season.

If the rebuilding of your Pittsburgh Steelers wasn’t underway prior to Roethlisberger’s injury, it certainly began during it.

Yes, the Steelers, with the help of a shocking early-season trade that saw them acquire safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for a first-round pick, remained in the playoff race until the final week thanks to a stout defense, but your eyes told you who that 2019 team was: One in transition.

Your eyes told you the same thing in 2020, even with a returning Roethlisberger, who somehow led the Steelers to an 11-0 start.

And there was no question Pittsburgh was in rebuild mode in 2021, maybe not fully—Roethlisberger was still around and surprisingly got the team into the playoffs—but damn near.

Last year was the Steelers’ first campaign without Roethlisberger as the face of the franchise in nearly two decades. Maybe that’s why it felt like the rebuilding had just begun.

Kenny Pickett, the rookie quarterback, struggled. The offensive line struggled. The offense was an even bigger joke than it had been the previous three seasons. Even the defense was just sort of okay without T.J. Watt for a significant portion of the 2022 campaign.

Maybe this is why the sentiment among so many—mainly, the national and local media experts—is that the Steelers are still two or three years away from truly being able to compete.

Two or three years? Rebuilds aren’t supposed to take over half a decade to be completed in the National Football League.

Pickett will be closing in on 30 in three years. Same with Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth.

Watt will be 31. Cam Heyward, Mr. Steeler, will probably be retired by then. Fitzpatrick will be 29.

The Steelers have been rebuilding and revamping their offensive line since the 2021 offseason. You mean to tell me they have a few more springs and summers to go before it’s finally done?

I’m not some overly-optimistic, pie-in-the-sky Steelers supporter who is proclaiming that the team is ready to win a Super Bowl now. I’m just saying there is no way it should take another three years to be a contender.

Yes, the AFC is loaded with quality quarterbacks, but that still doesn’t have much to do with the Steelers and their rebuild.

Obviously, Pickett would be the second-best quarterback when facing a team with an elite passer in 2023. However, if Pickett really does have the talent to be a franchise quarterback, NFL history tells me it won’t take him until 2026 to realize that potential.

I will say this in conclusion:

Roads and highways often take close to a decade to rebuild—Route 28, anyone?—but not NFL teams.

I might be in agreement with the experts, if not for the fact that Pittsburgh, who started 2-6 in 2022, finished with a 9-8 record.

Young teams that are on the rise often finish strong after challenging starts. Young teams who finish strong usually carry that momentum over to the following year.

A young team that finishes strong is often one that is pretty much done with its rebuild.

A young team that finishes strong is often one that is just about ready to compete with the big boys.

If it does take the Steelers another three years to be in position to win playoff games against the likes of Kansas City, Buffalo and Cincinnati, Mike Tomlin really should be fired.

But I don’t believe it’s going to take another three years for that to be a reality.

The NFL just isn’t built for seven-year rebuilds.