Category: NFL Football

What mock drafts can actually predict about the real pick

There’s nothing more irrelevant than a mock draft. The best only get about eight first round picks correct. When it comes to predicting winners, NFL drafts are only a little bit more predictable than Bingo cards. For instance, in 2023, scores of serious national and Pittsburgh figures published hundreds of mock drafts, but not one mocked Joey Porter Jr. at pick 32. In fact, nearly 25% of the mock drafts had the Steelers taking Porter at pick 17.

Despite this certitude of meaninglessness, I’ve studied Steelers mock drafts for the past three years, because I believe that if you study the numbers of any system, patterns emerge. Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature, including mock drafts. I’ve created a system draft guide that can find meaning out of the mockery.

What we know about mock drafts

Let’s restate my assumptions:

#1) No NFL mock drafts before free agency have any agency:

In 2022, 11 of the 15 worst happened before February 18th. Conversely, eight of the best 14 happened after 4/14. So the past two years, I’ve only started studying mock drafts after St Patrick’s Day.

#2) Local insiders have little to no insight regarding the Steelers’s draft board:

In 2022, Shane Hallam of SteelCityInsider was the only Pittsburgh media member to mock Kenny Pickett to the Steelers. Mike Prisuta, Dale Lolley and Matt Williamson didn’t even mock a quarterback that year (although Lolley deserves some credit for his statement in February 2022, “I’ve been told if Pickett is available at 20, the Steelers will take him.”)

In 2023, many insiders predicted Joey Porter Jr. would be Pittsburgh’s pick at 17, but Dave Bryan of Steelers Depot and Brian Batko of the PPG were the only locals to mock Broderick Jones (although Andrew Wilbar of BTSC picked Jones on one of his four mock drafts.).

Can we trust anyone’s mock draft?

The short answer is: not really, but these may be the closest. Luke Easterling of USA Today and Athlon Sports submitted 16 different mock drafts in 2022, so his credibility is a little watered down. However, he did have Kenny Pickett to Pittsburgh in four of his last eight mocks that year. He also mocked Broderick Jones to Pittsburgh in one of his four mocks in 2023. This year, Easterling’s three mock drafts picked Jackson Powers-Johnson, Terrion Arnold, and Graham Barton.

Let’s also give partial credit to Shane Hallam, the only local source to choose Pickett in 2022. Then in 2023, his first-round choice was Joey Porter Jr. This year, he’s got Pittsburgh drafting Tailese Fuaga.

The 50% Mock Threshold Hypothesis (plus a new amendment)

All this data has led to a theory I call “50% Mock Threshold.” The Steelers’ first found pick can be predicted from the group of players that make up at least 50 percent of the masses’ mock drafts.

For instance, in 2022, Malik Willis was the choice in 21.56% mock drafts. Desmond Ridder got 15.24%. Kenny Pickett had 12.27%. Matt Corral received 7.43%. Those top four selections crossed the threshold with 56.5% of all mock drafts. And, we all know that Pickett was the pick.

In 2023, Joey Porter Jr. was the first-round pick in 24.516% of mock drafts. Broderick Jones had 13.548%. Darnell Wright received 12.9%. That added up to 50.964%. Obviously, Jones was the pick.

I’m prepared to add a new amendment to this hypothesis: the Steelers will not choose the most popular mock draft selection. Willis and Porter Jr. were far and away the mock draft favorites, but Pittsburgh passed on both with their first-round pick.

Therefore, the Steelers’ first-round selection will be….

More mock drafts will continue to pour in leading up to the draft, but here’s where we currently stand.

Three players will give us the 50 percent threshold:

• Amarius Mims (OT, Georgia): 25.8%
• Graham Barton (IOL, Duke): 13.7%
• Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon): 12.9%

Since Mims is the most popular choice, I’m disqualifying him. That leaves Barton or Powers-Johnson as the mock science pick. If either is selected by the Steelers in the first round on Thursday, my theory is one step closer to postulate! If not, it’s back to the mocking board.

We know that the Steelers have been identified as a team that could be likely to trade for a veteran wide receiver this offseason, but what about teams looking for wide receivers in the first round? A lot of focus has been placed on teams looking to draft quarterbacks, per usual, but Jason La Canfora of The Washington Post provided us with the names of a few teams targeting pass-catchers on Day 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. La Canfora identifies the Cardinals, Bears, Colts, Bills, 49ers, and Chiefs as the likely suspects.

Some of these, we’ve heard plenty about already. At No. 4 overall, the Cardinals sit in the line of picks that are all expected to be quarterbacks, according to most mock drafts, meaning they are expected to trade down from the position. Many see them trading back to No. 6, allowing the Giants to select Daniel Jones‘ potential replacement. This would leave them in line to draft the class’s top receiver prospect, Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. This could provide Arizona with a new top receiver after the departure of Marquise Brown to Kansas City.

This would require the Chargers to pass on wide receiver, a huge position of need after watching both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams depart this offseason. While it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Los Angeles select Harrison, new general manager Joe Hortiz (from Baltimore) has shown an affinity for Notre Dame prospects like Ronnie Stanley and Kyle Hamilton. Combine that with the addition of new offensive coordinator Greg Roman, and connections to Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt make all the sense in the world. Roman’s run-heavy offensive mentality makes tackle a bigger priority than receiver.

Wide receiver has been seen as less of a priority for the Bears after they acquired Allen in a trade from the Chargers. Still, drafting a top receiver prospect like LSU’s Malik Nabers or Washington’s Rome Odunze could give projected new quarterback Caleb Williams a strong trio of targets with Allen and DJ Moore. Chicago could pair the draft’s QB1 with a potential WR1 as ESPN’s Matt Miller tells us that there are some teams in the NFL who see Nabers and Odunze as better prospects than Harrison. The three receivers are closer than people may think on most draft boards and their order of preference could come down to scheme and fit.

In Indianapolis, the Colts would love to bring in a first-round receiver for second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce were decent options behind Michael Pittman Jr., but having a true weapon across the field could really help both Richardson and Pittman. If Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze find their way off the board by the time the Colts select at No. 15, LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. could fall into their lap, though Odunze could still be available if nobody takes a flyer on him as the best player available regardless of position.

At the back end of the first round, wide receiver has become a big need for the Bills after they watched Gabriel Davis depart in free agency and traded away Stefon Diggs to the Texans. Khalil Shakir now leads the position room, and though the top four receivers aren’t expected to be available by the 28th pick, pairing Shakir with Texas’ Adonai Mitchell, FSU’s Keon Coleman, or Florida’s Ricky Pearsall could be productive.

As for the 49ers and Chiefs in the last two picks of the draft, San Francisco is a bit of surprise inclusion after recently paying Deebo Samuel and still currently denying that Brandon Aiyuk is available via trade. Still, if Aiyuk is potentially on the way out, taking flyer on Mitchell, Coleman, or Pearsall could work out.

As for Kansas City, they’ve tried their fair share of veteran free agent additions for Patrick Mahomes, and will do so again with the addition of Brown this offseason, as well as some draft picks in the second round or later. We’ve seen the Chiefs have success with smaller wide receivers with speed, so bringing in Georgia’s Ladd McConkey, Michigan’s Roman Wilson, or Texas’ Xavier Worthy could make a lot of sense.

Whoever doesn’t hear their name called on the first night of the draft shouldn’t have to wait too long. Dane Brugler of The Athletic’s latest mock draft showed the Panthers selecting McConkey with their first pick of the draft, which will be the first pick of the second round. If McConkey is already off the board, Wilson and Worthy offer similar skill sets.

It’s a deep class for wide receivers this year. Top prospects like Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas are considered no-brainers as first-round picks. An early run on those four could see many of the pass-catchers behind them find their way into the first round, as well. Even so there are nearly 20 wideouts with a projected third-round grade or better. Not only is this a wide receiver class with lots of talent up top, but talent throughout will benefit teams who need receivers but will have to target other positions of need first.

Known more for drafting and developing wide receivers — often from Day 2 — than trading for them, the Steelers have produced an impressive track record on this front. Over the past 15 years, Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have enjoyed varying levels of success with the team despite coming off the board after Round 1.

It is arguable no team has strung together a run of homegrown WR talent like this in the modern game, but rumblings continue to emerge about the Steelers being ready to pull the trigger on a trade. A report earlier this week indicated the team had inquired about Brandon Aiyuk and was interested in trading for a wideout, and the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora submits another offering in this direction.

Rival execs view the Steelers as the team potentially the most motivated to acquire a receiver via trade. While a Tee Higgins move will not happen — unlikely to be moved, Higgins definitely would not be dealt within the division — teams certainly are monitoring the 49ers regarding an Aiyuk swap.

Although Sean Payton and Broncos GM George Paton said (via the Denver Gazette’s Chris Tomasson) he has spoken with Courtland Sutton recently, the 6-foot-4 wideout showed by far the most chemistry with Russell Wilson last season. The team currently employing Wilson may be interested in reuniting the two, as Sutton is staying away from Broncos workouts in hopes of a new contract.

The Broncos nearly traded Sutton to the Ravens last year, and after their Jerry Jeudy asking price dropped drastically (from a first-rounder to accepting fifth- and sixth-rounders from the Browns), Sutton probably will not cost a second-round pick — Denver’s hope in 2023 — entering his age-29 season. Aiyuk will be more difficult to acquire, and it is worth wondering if the Steelers would pull the trigger, given the fifth-year wideout’s extension price and the AFC North franchise’s success finding receivers in the draft.

This draft is set to produce yet another deep receiver crop, which stands to lower prices in trades. But the Steelers may need more than one starter. Dealing Johnson to Carolina in a deal that brought back cornerback Donte Jackson, Pittsburgh has little surrounding Pickens presently. A slot player and a second boundary option would stand to be in play for the Steelers. The 6-foot-4 Sutton (signed through 2025 on a $15MM-per-year deal) made some of last season’s best catches, working as a deep threat and red zone target (10 2023 TDs) for Wilson. The 6-foot Aiyuk, who is tied to a fifth-year option worth $14.1MM, has displayed a bit more versatility in Kyle Shanahan‘s system.

If the Steelers are to execute a trade, they could devote more draft resources to other positions. Pittsburgh is targeting help at center and tackle, with The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly indicating a right tackle addition is on the team’s radar (subscription required). They hosted 11 O-linemen on “30” visits, including Georgia’s Amarius Mims, Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga along with interior O-lineman Graham Barton (Duke), Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon) and Zach Frazier (West Virginia), Kaboly adds. They also met with Washington O-lineman Troy Fautanu. Daniel Jeremiah’s big board lists each of these players as top-30 talents; the Steelers pick at No. 20.

The Steelers, who cut two-year center starter Mason Cole, look to be considering moving 2023 first-rounder Broderick Jones — their primary right tackle to close the season — to the left side, where he primarily played in college. That would leave three-year LT starter Dan Moore Jr. in limbo. Pro Football Focus has not been a Moore fan, but the former fourth-round pick — who is going into a contract year — has started 49 career games. After the team drafted Jones to step in for Chukwuma Okorafor, the latter is now with the Patriots. A tackle move — one that may be definitively in the Steelers’ Round 1 plans, as this is a deep class — would stand to give Jones a long-term bookend.

Pittsburgh’s Jackson trade aside, a cornerback will also be targeted — just likely not in Round 1 — according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac. Jackson is in a contract year, while the team cut Patrick Peterson. Mike Tomlin said a Peterson reunion will be considered, but the likely Hall of Famer is going into his age-34 season.

Dulac adds the Steelers also like Missouri defensive lineman Darius Robinson, whom the Tigers used across the formation. Ranked 39th on Jeremiah’s big board, the 285-pound defender might not be available for Pittsburgh without a second-round trade-up. The Steelers hold the No. 51 overall pick. In fact, ProFootballNetwork.com’s Adam Caplan notes Robinson is expected to be off the board at some point late in the first round. The Steelers have Cameron Heyward under contract for one more season, his age-35 campaign.