Read & React Preview: What the Chiefs’ offense and defense have to offer in Week 17

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Banged up and stumbling into the holidays, the Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs for Christmas.

It’s been a rough December for the Steelers (10-5) and things will not get easier this week as they take on the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1). The Steelers are injured and reeling after two straight losses. If they hope to hang on to the division lead — they would win in a tie with the Ravens — the Steelers likely need to win out. That starts this week against the reigning back-to-back champs.

What to expect from the Chiefs’ offense

Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

Rushing Y/G: 112.9 (15th)

Passing Y/G: 225.9 (12th)

Points Per Game: 23.7 (11th)

RP: The Chief’s offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes. Shocking, I know. The quarterback of the team chasing a Super Bowl three-peat is pretty good, who’d have thunk? We’ve all see the highlights, the clutch throws and scrambles in the biggest games. We all know how good Mahomes and these Chiefs are when the lights are on. But would you be surprised to learn the Chiefs, for all their greatness, are barely scoring more than the Steelers offense (23.5)?

The Chiefs, much like the Steelers, have become masters of winning the close games. This season, Kansas City has gone 10-0 in one-score games. Like the Steelers (31:20/7th), the Chiefs try to control time of possession, averaging 31:44 per game, second-most in the league.

But unlike the Steelers, the Chiefs have not been attacking the field much vertically. Per Next Gen Stats, Mahomes’ 7.2% deep throw percentage — a stat measuring the percentage of a passer’s attempts that travel more than 20 yards through the air — is tied with Aaron Rodgers for 30th in the league.

The Chiefs matriculate downfield. They’re tied for 26th in yards per rush (4.0), and only Tua Tagovailoa and Gardner Minshew average fewer air yards per attempt than Mahomes (6.3). That’s a big reason why the Chiefs lead the league in offensive plays run (1,000) and are able to hold the ball for so long. They kill you with a million papercuts of slow, ruthless efficiency that often looks just as painful for them as it is for opposing defenses. And when they do fall behind the chains, they have one of the best improvisational and third-down quarterbacks of all time to bail them out.

While Mahomes and the Chiefs offense aren’t often bombing it down the field, they’re still creative in getting their players open for Mahomes. Tight window percentage measures the percentage of passes where the targeted receiver has less than 1 yard of separation when the pass arrives. Only Lamar Jackson (10.5%) throws fewer tight window passes than Mahomes (10.7%).

In recent weeks, that’s meant creating ways to get speedy Xavier Worthy the ball in space, as well as Hollywood Brown who returned this past week from an injury he sustained in the summer. Neither DeAndre Hopkins nor Travis Kelce remain at their peak, but they are still savvy veterans who are sure-handed and know how to win possessions. The Chiefs like to create headaches for defenses by protecting their smaller speedsters by stacking them in bunches with their bigger-bodied possession receivers. In addition to the stars you expect to see, the Chiefs will include plenty of tight end Noah Gray and receiver Justin Watson, as well as the occasional rep from Juju Smith Schuster.

Kareem Hunt has anchored this rushing attack for most of the season after Isiah Pacheco broke his fibula back in Week 2. Hunt is purely a powerback at this point in his career. Hunt was never the fastest back, but he seems to have lost a step. However, what has always sent Hunt apart has been his elite contact balance, and that remains true. It hasn’t been sexy with him toting the rock this year (3.7 YPC), he rarely takes negative plays and has solid enough hands to be a checkdown outlet for Mahomes, securing 23 receptions for 176 yards. Hunt saw a reduced role in the first two weeks after Pacheco returned to action on Black Friday, but as Pacheco has struggled to get back up to speed, Hunt has seen his role increase in each of the past two weeks. The Steelers should expect a near-even split of both backs.

The Chiefs’ one glaring weakness on offense has been their tackle play. The Chiefs tried three players at left tackle — rookie Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris and D.J. Humphries — before settling on kicking guard Joe Thuney outside and promoting Mike Caliendo to starting guard. Meanwhile, starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor is tied for the sixth-most sacks allowed (7) and has allowed the 12th-most QB hits (6) and hurries (24) among tackles.

The keys for Pittsburgh will be simple. The Chiefs struggle to consistently create explosive plays. If the Steelers’ defense can shore up their tackling, especially in the secondary, they should be able to shrink the field on the Chiefs. The other primary focus will be limiting the damage Mahomes creates outside of the pocket. That’s something easier said than done, but the Steelers can’t allow him to freelance until a receiver gets open, or fall asleep and let him scramble for a clutch first down or create a chunk play with his legs. Mahomes showed last week that his hurt ankle won’t scare him off of attempting those types of plays, and the Steelers banged up Steelers will be toast if they don’t limit them.

And what about the defense?

Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images

Rushing Y/G: 91.4 (3rd)

Passing Y/G: 215.8 (17th)

Points Allowed Per Game: 18.5 (3rd)

RB: The Chiefs’ defense this year is an interesting one. Everyone knows they’re good, but they’re not quite as good as last year and are overshadowed, as usual, by the big names on the other side of the ball. As a result, they’re a little under-appreciated this season.

This unit ranks third in the NFL when it comes to points and yards per game. There aren’t a ton of big names, but coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been creative as ever and his defense is a huge part of what has made the Chiefs clear favorites for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Kansas City defense has one big name in particular, though: defensive lineman Chris Jones. He’s been one of the league’s most elite players for a while now and a crucial part of the Chiefs’ dynasty. This year, he’s only recorded five sacks, but he’s arguably more integral than ever. The Kansas City defensive line just doesn’t have many guys who can consistently get to the quarterback, and Jones’ talent and ability to draw blockers is crucial. They’ve also moved him around a lot this year on the defensive line.

The bad news for the Chiefs is that Jones has yet to practice this week, and there doesn’t seem to be much confidence regarding him playing on Christmas. If there’s one player Kansas City can’t lose on that side of the ball, it’s him. I’m sure the Steelers always want to play opponents at their best, but not having to worry about Jones would be a big break for an offense that needs a jump start in Week 17.

But if there’s one defensive coordinator who can make something happen without his best player, it’s Spagnuolo. His blitz savvy and general creativity are second to none, and he still should find a way to give the Steelers’ young offensive line fits on Christmas.

Outside of the D-line, the Chiefs have a solid linebacker corps against the run, led by Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill, and Leo Chenal. In coverage, they’ve been suspect. Tight ends have consistently had good games against Kansas City this year, and Pat Freiermuth should see a heavy dose of targets on Wednesday.

In the secondary, the Chiefs are led by All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie and the safety duo of Brian Cook and Justin Reid. They’ve been dealing with injuries lately, with starting cornerback Jaylen Watson on injured reserve and slot defender Chamarri Conner dealing with a concussion. Their depth held up fairly well against the Texans on Saturday (and Pittsburgh fans might see former Steeler Steve Nelson on Wednesday), but there could be some matchups to exploit there for the Steelers.

But don’t forget, you’re dealing with Steve Spagnuolo. His coverages and pressure packages are meant to be as unpredictable as possible, and it’ll take a smart game from Russell Wilson to succeed in the passing ga

What stands out about Kansas City’s defensive backs is how aggressive they are against the run. This is a group that crashes down hard on screens and isn’t afraid to play physically. As a result, the short passing game isn’t a surefire alternative to the ground game when playing Kansas City’s elite rushing def

The Chiefs’ defense, especially without Jones, looks like a winnable matchup for Pittsburgh. But their top-five numbers don’t lie. This is a creative, aggressive group that could cause some real problems on Wednesday.