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Staff picks for Week 16

The Steelers have a chance to win the AFC North for the first time in four years, and doing it in Baltimore would make it that much sweeter. Will they do it? Here is what our staff has to say about it.

In a Read &React column a few weeks back I predicted the Steelers would beat either the Eagles or Ravens, but not both. I’m standing by that prediction despite the numerous injuries that could keep several key players out. TJ Watt, who injured his ankle last week, is not among them. He is slated to play and as long as he’s truly healthy, that always gives the Steelers a chance. Steelers take it 24-22. – Ryan Parish

This game is giving me 2008 vibes. The Steelers went into Baltimore and played sloppy with 3-and-outs, pre-snap penalties and turnovers. But the defense kept it close enough for a fourth-quarter comeback ala Santonio Holmes’ goal-line lean. Or maybe this game is giving 2016 vibes, when points were prolific, but it still took an Immaculate Extension to win the game in the final moments. Another eight years have gone by, and the tradition will continue. The offense will start slow but have a chance in the fourth. This year’s miracle comeback moment will be supplied by Pat Freiermuth. Steelers 13-Ravens 12. – Kyle Chrise

Baltimore is a very good team. That being said, these games are always close and Pittsburgh matches up much better against the Ravens than they did against the Eagles a week ago. Injuries will make winning difficult, but I think Pittsburgh toughs it out on the road and takes the AFC North in an ugly game. Steelers win, 17-13. – Ryland Bickley

Last week’s loss to the Eagles exposed some warts in the Steelers secondary that make me nervous heading into this contest against Lamar Jackson. Yes, the Steelers have always contained him, but they’ve only faced him once at home – and that was without a crowd during the Covid year. Jackson continues to hang around in the MVP race, as he’s tossed 34 TDs to just 3 INT’s. The emergence of WR Rashod Bateman is significant, catching four TDs in his last four games (he is questionable, however).There has been no emergence from a Steelers wideout. Without George Pickens, they simply won’t be able to keep up with the Ravens. Russell Wilson is working with a completely bare cupboard, and outside of a few splash plays from Calvin Austin III, there hasn’t been much to inspire optimism from Mike Williams or Van Jefferson. Ravens exorcise some demons and win 24-17. – Mike Nicastro

In a game that could very well decide the division, Mike Tomlin & Co. are all very much aware of what’s on the line — especially without several key playmakers. Still, given the nature of these Tomlin-Harbaugh showdowns historically, it wouldn’t surprise me if it came down to a field goal…. and there’s one kicker I trust substantially more than the other at this point. His name is Chris Boswell. Steelers 20-Ravens 17. – Kate Magdziuk

The next good game Lamar Jackson plays against the Steelers will be the first. Until the Ravens show they can beat the Steelers, I’m not going to pick them to do so, no matter if Pickens is out or not – they’ve won with worse teams. It’ll be an ugly, low-scoring rock fight that the Steelers will win. Steelers 19, Ravens 15. – Jarrett Bailey

Are you ready for Steelers-Ravens on a Saturday?

Welcome back to BTSC’s Friday night open thread:

1. The Steelers play tomorrow in one of the NFL’s late-season Saturday games. This time of year, there’s not only chores on Saturdays, but also must-watch College Football Playoff matchups and Christmas-related things to get done. How annoying is NFL’s Saturday scheduling for you?
2. The Steelers are not at full strength entering tomorrow’s game against the Ravens. What has you worried the most: no George Pickens, no DeShon Elliott, or T.J. Watt likely not at 100%?
3. There are plenty of iconic Steelers-Ravens moments, but most of them are from nearly a decade ago or more. What’s your favorite moment from the last five years of this rivalry?
4. The Steelers officially clinched a playoff spot last week, which means we can safely take a quick look ahead. Here’s a peek at the current playoff picture; what’s your ideal matchup for the Steelers in the first week of the postseason? (Outside of the unlikely-but-possible No. 1 seed bye week).
5. The Steelers’ usage of running backs has been scrutinized over the last few weeks. If you were the offensive coordinator, how would you want Pittsburgh playing Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, and Cordarrelle Patterson?
6. As referenced in the first question, the College Football Playoff starts this weekend, with the first game kicking off tonight. Who are you pulling for to win the whole thing?

BONUS: My song of the night, from one of my favorite albums this year:

So, settle down for the weekend, share your food and drink of choice, and let’s talk some football.

Is running back now a higher priority for the Steelers in the NFL Draft?

The launch of the college football playoff has finally arrived and the 12 teams that made the tournament are littered with NFL talent – as you can imagine. I’d argue that this week’s slate will offer the most exciting games; these 5 players are a big reason. They will represent needs that the Steelers should focus on as they look to bolster an already talented roster in 2025.

1. Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee

I’ve discussed ad nauseum the Steeler’s choice to decline RB Najee Harris’ fifth-year option this offseason — and that decision is looking better each week. As much as I like Najee, his recent numbers tell a bleak story. He’s averaging just 3.21 yards per attempt and 49.8 yards per game since the Steelers bye week. He also fumbled in a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday at an inopportune time.

The Associated Press voted Sampson as the SEC offensive player of the year following an eye-opening season, scampering for 1,485 yards and 22 TDs. He’ll face an Ohio State defense that ranks sixth in the country in rushing yards allowed so the rubber will meet the road in a must-watch quarterfinal showdown on Saturday night.

2. Donovan Jackson, G, Ohio State

Rookie G Chas McCormick has all the makings of a future star and was certainly a big steal in last year’s draft. Still, I’d assume the Steelers will eventually be looking for another young stud to take the place of Isaac Seumalo, who will turn 32 next October.

Jackson has been a standout in Ohio State’s zone run scheme, something Steelers OC Arthur Smith has made his bread and butter over the years. He has big-time play strength, and his hand placement has improved mightily over the past few seasons. Jackson will be facing arguably the best defensive line in the sport in the Volunteers. In my eyes, he currently projects as a late first-round selection.

3. Mikail Kamara, DT, Indiana

You can pencil in the Steelers drafting a defensive lineman in the first three rounds as they continue to follow the Eagles’ playbook of building from the inside out. Ever since assistant GM Andy Wiedl arrived in the Burgh’ (former Eagles VP of player personnel) we’ve seen the team draft five offensive linemen in the past two drafts, including first-round selections of Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu. They’ve also drafted two defensive linemen, including rising star Keeanu Benton.

I’d anticipate that the trend will continue, and Kamara is a fast riser in this draft process. An unranked player coming out of high school, he struggled to find his footing in his first two collegiate seasons. Pittsburgh native and Hoosier’s head coach Curt Cignetti has changed the culture in Bloomington and has also turned Kamara into one of the best players in the country. This season Kamara has racked up 10 sacks, three forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. I’d anticipate him being a mid-round pick.

4. Cody Simon, OLB, Ohio State

Simon has been the anchor of a Buckeyes defense that leads college football in points allowed, yards per game allowed, and rushing yards per game allowed. The fifth-year senior overcame multiple setbacks throughout his duration at Ohio State, including a shocking benching in 2022, after an above-average 2021 campaign.

His playing time dipped, but his work ethic did not. The three-time all-academic Big 10 selection is second on the team in tackles and is constantly disruptive in the backfield. He’s projected to run around a 4.50 forty, so his speed is well above average at the position. He can play both inside and outside linebacker, and projects as a mid-round selection.

5. Brashard Smith, RB/WR, SMU

What an interesting case study Smith is. He was a wide receiver for three years at Miami before transferring to SMU in the fall. And suddenly he’s become one of the best running backs in the nation. The versatile playmaker ran for 1,270 yards and 14 TDs this year for the surprising Mustangs and is the stir that straws the drink for the electric, fast-paced offense that hopes to build upon one of the best seasons in program history as they take on Penn State in Happy Valley on Saturday.

Who will you be keeping a close eye on this weekend? Let us know in the comments section!

There’s trouble brewing in Baltimore…

Update: The Baltimore Ravens officially released Diontae Johnson on Friday, December 20. He will hit the waiver wire and can officially be claimed on Monday, December 23 at 4 p.m. ET.

Should the Steelers bring back Diontae Johnson?

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The Pittsburgh Steelers made a widely criticized choice this offseason, electing to move on from veteran WR Diontae Johnson — the team’s leading receiver from 2020 to 2022 — in exchange for Carolina Panthers cornerback Donte Jackson and a late pick swap.

Despite plenty of traits that made Jackson special (and the fact that HC Mike Tomlin had been interested in bringing his skills to Pittsburgh for years), fans were left wondering what GM Omar Khan was thinking, sending out a key piece of the receiving corps without a contingency plan in place. Johnson, a former third-round pick (one of the two picks acquired in the trade of Antonio Brown to Las Vegas), was coming off his fifth season with the black and gold, having averaged just over nine targets per game over the past four seasons.

Though the move was initially met with criticism, it was immediately clear that his fit in Carolina was questionable. In a contract year, he’d been paired with a quarterback in development in Bryce Young, who’d been benched after a disastrous start to his second year, only to be traded to a Super Bowl contender in the Baltimore Ravens. Apparently, that wasn’t the right fit either, though.

In his four games active with the Baltimore Ravens, Johnson has totaled just five targets, catching one of them for six receiving yards, failing to surpass 17 offensive snaps in any game this year. Reports then surfaced of his refusal to enter their Week 14 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, resulting in a one-game suspension from the Ravens due to conduct detrimental to the team.

Now, heading into Week 16’s matchup with the Steelers, the team announced that they’d “mutually agreed” that Johnson would be excused from team activities. So, what gives?

No doubt, it’s an odd situation. Clearly, there’s an issue with Johnson’s perceived relationship with the team or role within the offense, regardless of the fact that this is a winning roster. After all, he’s playing for his future; even if he does walk away with a Super Bowl ring this year with Baltimore, what will it mean in 2025 and beyond as he seeks his next contract if he didn’t play an integral role in attaining it?

It’s been consistently rumored since Johnson’s refusal to enter Week 14’s game that the Ravens could explore the option of releasing him to rid themselves of the distraction. However, given his history with the Steelers and Baltimore’s upcoming matchup with the black and gold in Week 16, it’s unlikely that move would be on the horizon ahead of Saturday.

If the Ravens were to release Johnson, he’d be subject to waivers, as all players are following the annual NFL trade deadline. That would mean the Steelers would be faced with the decision of whether or not to place a claim on Johnson. It’s abundantly clear, especially as Pittsburgh is managing an injury to star George Pickens, that this roster could use some depth at wide receiver.

However, the question is not whether or not Johnson is a fit in terms of needs. It’s a question of whether or not he can assimilate to the current culture that the team is trying to build and whether or not they’d like to take the chance of disruption, should things go awry.

So, with that, Steelers fans — we want to hear from you. If the Ravens cut Johnson, should Pittsburgh come knocking? Vote now!

Should the Steelers bring back Johnson?

After being suspended by the Baltimore Ravens for refusing to enter the game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Ravens have officially released wide receiver Diontae Johnson after acquiring him from the Carolina Panthers ahead of the NFL trade deadline.

Johnson’s had a crazy year. In January, he was playing for the Steelers in a playoff game. In March, he was dealt to the Panthers in exchange for Donte Jackson and a pick swap before being sent to Baltimore in the middle of the season. Now, he finds himself without a team all together which does warrant the question – should the Steelers bring him back for the playoffs?

The obvious answer is yes. Sometimes it takes seeing what’s on the other side to realize that it wasn’t greener after all. Johnson would immediately be the No. 2 receiver for the Steelers on the perimeter. And while they would have to get him acclimated into the offense, they’d have a couple weeks to do so ahead of the postseason. The move makes all the sense in the world, and Pittsburgh should bring Johnson back.

What the Steelers will need to do to defeat the Ravens

With a win Saturday, the Pittsburgh Steelers will clinch their first AFC North division title since 2020 and host their first full-capacity playoff game since the 2017 season.

What will they have to do to get the job done? Here is this week’s keys to victory.

Calvin Austin and Mike Williams

No George Pickens obviously effects what the Steelers can do offensively, which was painfully evident against the Eagles in Week 15. That said, Pittsburgh also showed that they can still be explosive against subpar defenses like they did against the Browns. The Ravens’ defense has been brutal all season, ranking 28th in EPA per dropback. Getting the likes of Calvin Austin and Mike Williams involved is important. Williams had three grabs against the Browns, and Austin has had multiple big games this season where he was responsible for long touchdown grabs. Test the Ravens downfield early, keep them backed up, and get the ground game going to set up play action pass opportunities to the big-play receivers in the offense.

Defensive splash plays

The Steelers always seem to have defensive splashes against the Ravens. In all of his starts against the Steelers, Lamar Jackson has thrown at least one interception. Pittsburgh had three takeaways against Baltimore earlier this season in the win, and they’ll need a big play or two to swing momentum on the road to help secure the division.

Make Lamar throw

The Steelers did a great job of keeping Derrick Henry grounded when these two teams met just a few short weeks ago. Henry finished with just 65 yards while Jackson completed less than 50 percent of his passes, going 16-of-33. The Steelers have always had a terrific game plan against Jackson, which usually involves keeping him in the pocket and making him throw the ball. Do it again, and they’ll leave Baltimore as AFC North champions.

What to watch in the battle for the top spot in the AFC North

After defeating their arch-nemesis at home, Pittsburgh now travels to Baltimore looking for the same outcome. An 18-16 effort in Week 11 was enough for the Steelers to pull out the W and eventually secure a playoff birth. Now, after a season of battling for the top dog in the AFC North, the crown is all but up for grabs this Saturday afternoon.

The only problem with this fairy-tale ending for the Steelers is that the Ravens appear to be entering their prime. Following their Bye Week in Week 14, the Ravens embarrassed the New York Giants. Lamar Jackson’s five touchdowns give more insight as to why he could be on his way to a third MVP trophy (second in a row). Jackson’s five touchdowns propelled his squad to a convincing 35-14 road victory.

The story for Pittsburgh was slightly different. The Steelers traveled to Philadelphia, a place they have yet to win in now 60 years. That script did not change as the Steelers dropped their second game with Russell Wilson at QB by way of a 27-13 defeat. It was an unhealthy lineup in Philadelphia that did not have their best day. Now, regaining some health, Pittsburgh looks to respond and claim the AFC North title. If not, it will be a stressful final two weeks with fate potentially no longer in their hands.

Speaking of health, the Ravens see a couple of key pieces on their Week 16 injury report. This includes two receivers, Rashod Bateman (foot) and Nelson Agholor (concussion) who are listed as questionable and out, respectively. Another receiver, Diontae Johnson, will not play due to non-injury-related issues. Also on offense, guard Daniel Faalele (knee) is questionable for this Saturday’s duel. Finally, outside linebacker Odafe Oweh (ankle) is also questionable.

The injury bug has not left the Steelers either. This week, they will be without key offensive pieces George Pickens (hamstring) and Justin Fields (abdominal) and without safety DeShon Elliott for the second week in a row with a hamstring injury. The list does not stop there for defensive injuries though, as both Donte Jackson (back) and Larry Ogunjobi (groin) are questionable too.

With a gauntlet of health issues for both squads, let us look at some key storylines that could play large roles in this rendition of the black and gold vs. the black and purple.

Current G.O.A.T vs. All-time G.O.A.T?

Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Is this a war between the best current NFL kicker and the best all-time kicker? Well, if that is the case, the best all-time did not look too impressive at all, essentially losing the game for his side. Tucker’s ¹⁄₃ FG showing from Acrisure Stadium was the difference maker in the two-point game.

Boswell, on the other hand, has been mere perfect all season long. No. 9 is 38/41 on the season and is currently leading all NFL kickers in Pro Bowl voting. As the rivalry shifts to Baltimore, it will be interesting to see whether or not Tucker can turn things around and if Boswell can continue his scorching hot season.

Embracing the discomfort

Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

An 18-16 final score is by no means a pretty game for either team. When has it been pretty with the Steelers and Ravens though? With that score, that is now each of the previous nine games between these two being decided by a touchdown or less. Of those nine tight games, the Steelers came out on top in eight.

That will be the key once more as the stakes are arguably the highest they have been in years. There is going to be mistakes from both sides, even the MVP candidate Jackson is not perfect. His one interception was enough for Pittsburgh to use as momentum and take control of the game in Week 11. This time around, momentum will start with Baltimore as they play host. The question is will Pittsburgh be able to steal it, use it, and sustain it?

What it all means

As mentioned earlier, this is it, this is for all the marbles. A win for Baltimore leaves the door wide open for them to win the AFC North. A win for Pittsburgh solidifies the division and locks it up for the black and gold for the first time since 2020.

The Steelers have done just what they need to in order to be in this position. Their Week 14 victory over Cleveland leaves fate in their hands, with the opportunity to pounce now.

Baltimore has done just what they need to do as well. Their post-bye Week thumping of the Giants puts them right where they need to be in order to rip the rug from under Pittsburgh, potentially squandering their division hopes.

Expect the unexpected and strap up for the most important Steelers-Ravens tilt in quite some time.

Score prediction: Steelers 20, Ravens 18